11/30/2022 0 Comments Ubs Account 9.1![]() "The bigger concern here is the bond market repricing to increase the probability of a 75 basis point hike in December," Tyler said. Tyler expects a CPI print of 8.1% to 8.3% in September to also be negative for the stock market, estimating that the S&P 500 would fall about 2% on Thursday in that scenario. While the Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate by another 75 basis points at its upcoming FOMC meeting on November 2, its following two meetings lack consensus and this Thursday's CPI inflation could determine whether the Fed continues with its aggressive rate hikes after November 2, or if a slow-down in rate hikes is appropriate.Īccording to Bloomberg, consensus estimates suggest a CPI print of 8.1% on Thursday, which would represent a continued deceleration in price increases from the peak of 9.1% reached in June. "This feels like another -5% day," JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler said, referencing last month's 4.3% decline in the S&P 500 after CPI came in at 8.3%, ahead of consensus estimates for 8.1%. The bank expects the stock market to sell-off by 5% if the inflation gauge shows a re-acceleration relative to August's 8.3% reading, as it would bolster the Fed's call that it needs to continue to hike interest rates to tame inflation. ![]() ![]() Investors should be prepared for a steep stock market decline on Thursday if the highly anticipated September Consumer Price Index reading comes in above 8.3%, JPMorgan's trading desk said on Monday. ![]()
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